Middle Eastern Tortuga
How Donald Trump Plans to Take Control of Gaza and Deport All Its Residents
U.S. President Donald Trump is considering the forced deportation of two million residents of the Gaza Strip and promises to build a "Mediterranean Riviera" under American control on the ruins of Palestinian homes destroyed by war. Essentially, there is no one to stand up for the Palestinians—they lack a real state of their own, and their relations with neighboring countries are far from ideal. However, Trump's position is not without complications. His inner circle understands that ethnic cleansing, which is what the forced deportation of civilians undoubtedly amounts to, is a crime. As a result, they are trying to convince the world that Trump's words were misunderstood.
In early 2013, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree changing the name of the territories under his control—albeit largely nominal—from the "Palestinian National Authority" to the "State of Palestine." Officially, this was done to strengthen sovereignty and national institutions. In reality, Abbas was presenting wishful thinking as reality. Palestine was not a real state when he signed the decree, and it remains unrecognized as such to this day. Israel controls most Palestinian lands, monitors trade between Palestine and its foreign partners, and, with government support, Jewish settlers continue to establish new farms and even entire cities on Arab lands. Palestine has a president and a government, but it lacks independent foreign and domestic policies, a proper army (only security forces armed mostly with light weapons), and even its own currency—Israeli shekels are used instead. The sovereignty and national institutions that Abbas sought to strengthen twelve years ago remain largely virtual, existing only on paper or under strict Israeli control.
Monument depicting the Hamas diver saboteur on Gaza beach (photo by Yuriy Matsarsky)
Even though most countries recognize Palestinian statehood, this recognition does not negate its virtual nature. Without Israel's permission, without its withdrawal from the territories designated for Palestine, without Israel transferring control of Palestinian borders to the Palestinians themselves, without the dismantling of settlements, and without the formation of independent and stable bureaucratic and security institutions, real statehood will never be achieved. From the perspective of both its residents and the international community, including the UN, Palestine remains under Israeli occupation, with Israel having the final say in almost all Palestinian political, economic, and even educational matters.
Israel has never recognized Palestinian statehood and has no intention of doing so. Most of its population is not just against recognizing Palestinian independence but supports incorporating Palestinian territories into the Jewish state. Israelis see an independent Palestine with its own army and foreign policy as a threat to their security. They fear that such a Palestine would not just be hostile to Israel but would be built on hatred for the Jewish state, potentially leading to endless bloody wars in the Middle East.
It is important to note that Israel is not alone in its refusal to recognize Palestinian statehood. Major international players, including the United States and the United Kingdom, support this stance. They have their own reasons: in the U.S., for example, Christian Zionism significantly influences policy, advocating that Jews should control the entire Holy Land without exception. Europeans, on the other hand, fear that separatist movements on the continent might seek independence using the same methods as the Palestinians, including terrorism.
Because of all this, Palestinians still do not have a real sovereign state. Moreover, even countries that recognize Palestinian statehood (including Ukraine and several EU members) do not recognize Palestinian passports. To them, Palestinian citizens are stateless.
The streets of Gaza city (photo by Yuriy Matsarsky)
Almost everything described above applies to only one of the two Palestinian regions—the West Bank. This is where President Abbas's residence and foreign diplomatic missions are located. When a country announces its recognition of Palestinian statehood, it is referring to the West Bank. The other Palestinian territory—the Gaza Strip—is not even a virtual state under foreign control. It is a true pirate entity, a Middle Eastern Tortuga, where power was until recently held exclusively by the Hamas group. Hamas, which from its inception declared its main goal to be the expulsion of Zionists from the Middle East, is recognized by most of the civilized world as a terrorist organization. Both the West Bank and Gaza were supposed to be under the control of a unified administration led by Abbas. However, in 2007, Hamas seized power in Gaza by force, eliminating, intimidating, or expelling all its opponents. From then until October 7, 2023, everything in the region—from the police to the Ministry of Health—was under Hamas control.
Now, Hamas's Tortuga has been reduced to rubble by the war that began a year and a half ago after terrorists from Gaza attacked Israel. Bombings and shelling have destroyed or damaged nearly 70% of all structures in the region, leaving the vast majority of Gaza's two million residents either homeless or living in partially destroyed homes. From the perspective of Israel and the U.S., which do not recognize Palestinian statehood, these people are stateless. They are homeless and rootless, with no government to defend their interests or even a place to call their own. Against this backdrop, it is easy to imagine the logic of U.S. President Donald Trump, who is clearly seeking an easy and significant victory to showcase his genius to the world.
"Ninety percent of Gaza's population are already refugees. They don't have passports from 'normal' countries, so we can treat them however we want without worrying about damaging relations with those countries. They lived under the rule of bloodthirsty Hamas militants who spared no one. It can't get much worse for them," Trump might reason. "If we deport them all, clear the territory, and turn it into a Mediterranean resort, one of the world's hottest conflict zones will be eliminated forever. That's a loud victory in my pocket."
The problem is that complex issues—and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not just complex but catastrophically so—do not have simple solutions. Trump cannot force Arab countries to accept millions of foreign citizens. Moreover, the two countries closest to the Palestinian territories—Egypt and Jordan—fear these refugees more than they fear Trump and his entire team combined. In Egypt, the current government overthrew President Mohamed Morsi and his administration, which was dominated by Islamists from the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood had a Palestinian branch, which gave rise to Hamas in the 1980s. Cairo is well aware that among the refugees from Gaza, there will undoubtedly be many Hamas sympathizers who may seek revenge for their Egyptian brothers. Jordan, in the 1970s, struggled to suppress an armed uprising by disgruntled Palestinian refugees and is clearly not eager to test how much more radical and desperate Palestinians have become over the decades.
Israeli soldiers in West Bank (photo by Yuriy Matsarsky)
Even if Egypt and Jordan were willing to accept the deportees, the question of the legality of such actions would inevitably arise. Forced deportation of civilians is prohibited by the Geneva Convention, to which both the U.S. and Israel are signatories. From the perspective of international law, this is a crime—and an extremely serious one.
Another question arises: whose hands does Trump intend to use to expel two million Gazans from the region? The Israeli military? A year and a half of war has shown that their efforts are clearly insufficient. Hamas is not only not destroyed but is actively recruiting new fighters and rebuilding its combat capabilities. Would Trump risk sending U.S. troops into Gaza, potentially ruining relations with all Arab partners, including key allies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for decades? And if he did, could he still claim victory when the first coffins of American soldiers start coming home? Because they will come home—Hamas, accustomed to fighting a far more advanced enemy, will undoubtedly engage U.S. forces in battle.
Overall, Trump's statements about Gaza, in which he promises to bring the region under U.S. control, seem more like geopolitical posturing than a real plan of action. Even within his own team, there is no consensus on Gaza. While Trump promises to permanently expel all Palestinians from the region, his Secretary of State, Mark Rubio, claims that the president actually wants to rebuild Gaza and return its residents.
Predicting how Trump will act regarding Gaza is a thankless task. The American president has proven himself to be unpredictable and eccentric, capable of unexpected moves and extremely sharp statements. But if you are offered a bet that no resort will appear in Gaza by the end of his presidential term, feel free to take it. Eccentricity and unpredictability alone are definitely not enough to implement this plan.